New Scientist had a particularly chilling map showing what the climate models predict the world would be like with a 4 degree centigrade warming:
(Click on images to expand them). The New Scientist article includes a lot of rather utopian speculation about what will be done in response to desertification, such as the Russians being happy to take billions of refugees and the world being happy to put billions of pounds worth of solar cells in North Africa and the Middle East. China and India are expanding emissions at such a rate that 4 degrees C is quite likely by the end of the century.
I was inclined to think that the New Scientist map was a bit overly pessimistic but the World Bank has come up with a similar pattern for declining agricultural production by 2050 at current rates of CO2 emissions:
The FAO has a similarly optimistic outlook for the next 20 years with declining production of biomass per head except in Russia:
This might worry some people but fortunately most people have accepted that global warming is a conspiracy.
Four Degrees and Beyond
The Royal Society had an issue back in January 2011 that explored what might happen if Global Warming were to exceed 4 degrees centigrade called Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369 3; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0289 .
The issue starts with: "Even with strong political will, the chances of shifting the global energy system fast enough to avoid 2°C are slim. Trajectories that result in eventual temperature rises of 3°C or 4°C are much more likely, and the implications of these larger temperature changes require serious consideration." (New et al).
We are currently on the highest of the projected emissions scenarios called A1F1 thanks to the industrialisation of Asia. The issue predicts that: "...our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC’s ‘likely range’." (Betts et al).
The availability of water declines over much of the world:
Notice that this recent forecast is far more optimistic about the future of India and China than the New Scientist article. Africa and the Amazon look a bit grim...
Interested in global warming? You might also like:
The Melting of Arctic Ice - You Probably Should Panic
The Evidence for Global Warming. (1) the Himalayas
The Evidence for Global Warming. (2) Analysis using source data for global changes
Global warming (3) man or nature?
The strange case of the missing CO2
Is climate change a threat because of overpopulation?
Blue Haze, Brown Clouds and the need to stop Geoengineering before it begins.
Global warming: what do we do now?
14/8/2012
 |
| New Scientist projection of effects of Global Warming if the world warms by 4 degrees C. |
(Click on images to expand them). The New Scientist article includes a lot of rather utopian speculation about what will be done in response to desertification, such as the Russians being happy to take billions of refugees and the world being happy to put billions of pounds worth of solar cells in North Africa and the Middle East. China and India are expanding emissions at such a rate that 4 degrees C is quite likely by the end of the century.
I was inclined to think that the New Scientist map was a bit overly pessimistic but the World Bank has come up with a similar pattern for declining agricultural production by 2050 at current rates of CO2 emissions:
 |
| World Bank projection of effects of global warming on agricultural yields and food production by 2050 at current rates of CO2 emissions. |
 |
| Net primary production of biomass per capita percent change (from 1961–1990 mean to 2030): data compiled and adjusted by FAO Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division, based on “World maps of climatological net primary production of biomass (NPP)” (2006) available at http://www.fao.org/NR/climpag/globgrids/NPP_en.asp |
This might worry some people but fortunately most people have accepted that global warming is a conspiracy.
Four Degrees and Beyond
The Royal Society had an issue back in January 2011 that explored what might happen if Global Warming were to exceed 4 degrees centigrade called Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369 3; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0289 .
The issue starts with: "Even with strong political will, the chances of shifting the global energy system fast enough to avoid 2°C are slim. Trajectories that result in eventual temperature rises of 3°C or 4°C are much more likely, and the implications of these larger temperature changes require serious consideration." (New et al).
We are currently on the highest of the projected emissions scenarios called A1F1 thanks to the industrialisation of Asia. The issue predicts that: "...our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC’s ‘likely range’." (Betts et al).
The availability of water declines over much of the world:
 |
| Global warming, projections of rainfall in 2060. Click to view larger image, data from Fung et al. |
Interested in global warming? You might also like:
The Melting of Arctic Ice - You Probably Should Panic
The Evidence for Global Warming. (1) the Himalayas
The Evidence for Global Warming. (2) Analysis using source data for global changes
Global warming (3) man or nature?
The strange case of the missing CO2
Is climate change a threat because of overpopulation?
Blue Haze, Brown Clouds and the need to stop Geoengineering before it begins.
Global warming: what do we do now?
14/8/2012
Comments